Alaska Salmon Program

UW-FRI Daily Update


July 25, 2019 (data through July 23)

Figure A. Cumulative C+E Comparison: Comparison of daily cumulative C+E observed for Bristol Bay in 2019, and expected daily values (blue curve). Expected daily values are calculated relative to the 2019 preseason forecast and the average distribution of inshore arrivals (1980–2018). Connected gray dots show the 2019 observed daily cumulative C+E. Green dashed line represents expectations if the run is 2 days early, red dashed line if the run is 2 days late.

Figure B. Daily Catch and Escapement: Observed catch and escapement for years 2015-2018 as stacked bars, compared with 2019 (top). Escapements are in light gray and catches in dark gray. Total run for Bristol Bay is shown in millions of sockeye on the right hand axis.

Figure C. Comparison of Expected & Observed Daily Port Moller Index: 2019 observed and interpolated (gray and black bars) UW-FRI Port Moller Index is compared with expected daily index values (red line and shaded area) for a Bristol Bay run equal to the preseason forecast with average run timing, and exhibiting average Port Moller to inshore travel time (TT) and run-per-index (RPI). Expected daily index values for a run at the preseason forecast, with TT and RPI equal to those observed in 2015-2018 are plotted with blue lines and symbols.


Figure D. Expected C+E Days: Total number of days in which the catch + escapement exceeded 1.0, 2.0 or 3.0 million fish as a function of the total run size from 1965 to 2018. Fitted lines indicate the expected number of days in excess, for a specific total return. Shaded area encompasses the data for total returns between 41 and 48 million fish. Red outlined diamonds are 2019 observed C+E days in excess of 1.0, 2.0, or 3.0 million fish. Note: the red outlined diamonds will be stacked on the horizontal axis until the first 1.0 million fish day is recorded.

Figure E. GOA Sockeye Escapement: 2013-2019 cumulative sockeye escapements to select Gulf of Alaska river systems.


Catch and escapement data are collected by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, and the Bristol Bay Science and Research Institute operate Port Moller test fishery. Data interpretation is conducted by UW-FRI, please direct any questions to Curry Cunningham or Chris Boatright at 907-842-5380.