January 21, 2022

Forecast: January 21st, 2022

Last updated 1:41 P.M. Friday, January 21st, 2022

By Preston Donion

Hello and Happy Friday, Huskies!

The third week of the quarter is coming to a close, but our new weather pattern is just getting started. If you’re not a fan of the dreary, wet winter days, it’s a pattern you can get behind—not a drop of rain is expected in the next seven days! We may even make it to February on this dry stretch, but that’s a bit too far out to place bets on.

In the meantime, we’ll enjoy a partly to mostly sunny day around the Sound today, with some low clouds hanging around but not entirely blocking out the Sun! Temperatures will reach the upper 40s before dropping into the mid 30s overnight. About average in the temperature department and below average in the precipitation department? I don’t know about you but I’ll take that any day of the week!

The story for the week ahead looks, well, very similar. If you’re seeing mostly cloudy conditions every single day on the seven day forecast, that’s not a mistake—that’s the product of our lingering high pressure system! That high pressure acts as a lid that keeps storm systems away, but it also keeps moisture from evaporating away fully, giving us fog, especially closer to the water. We will likely see foggy starts at least a few times in the next handful of days, so be ready for those challenging conditions if you’re out on your commute. As that high pressure really settles in for days on end, it will trap any clouds it catches and we will see less and less of that winter sunshine. That loss of sunshine will contribute to our slow decline in temperatures throughout the week; highs in the mid 40s are expected versus our average high for this time which is about 49°. Our key for relief in situations like this, regardless of the season, is wind. A good breezy day can help move fog and stagnant air out of the region and refresh us, but that is looking elusive in the next few days. Both the American and European models see us getting gusts of 15-20 mph tomorrow afternoon, but then we enter a stretch of nearly still air that could last all the way until the end of next week. A dry stretch like this in the winter can’t come without a catch, I suppose!

Speaking of dry stretches, how does this one stack up against history? Looking ahead, we have a decent chance at some rain next Friday, so we’ll assume a 7-day streak. Surprisingly, there’s been significantly longer stretches in previous Januarys! In 1945, we saw 12 straight days without precipitation at Sea-Tac, and we got 11 straight in 1985 and 2009. That being said, this isn’t necessarily all that common. Take 2021 for example: we only had seven total days without any rain last January! 2020 was even crazier, with just one day without even a trace! We have to look back to 2019 to see a comparable stretch, where we had two separate six-day runs without rain. So while this is far from historic, it is a unique treat for those of us who don’t love the drizzle!

As is customary for my wintertime blogs, I must look at the snow chances in some form, whether that is in the near future or only hinted at in the distance. For now, it’s only a far-off fantasy, but encouraging signals are out there. Both the Euro and GFS have the first weekend of February pinned as a chilly one for the moment, and we all know what February brought in 2019 and 2021…Our La Nina pattern helps stack the deck towards wetter and cooler conditions, but nothing is a guarantee. We’ll have to keep an eye on that potential as the new month nears, but in the meantime, get out and enjoy this third dry weekend in a row! Have fun in the sun, and we’ll be back with more tomorrow!

7-DAY FORECAST	ALMANAC

Reach forecaster Preston Donion at theuwdawgcast@uw.edu or on Twitter @PrestonDonion.