January 31, 2025

Will We See Snow on Campus This Weekend?

By: Jake Stevenson and Joseph Renalds

Happy Friday Huskies!

We’ve finally reached the end of January and the long-awaited pattern switch has arrived with it. Rain returned last night after no precipitation was recorded for two straight weeks, leaving us at quite the accumulation deficit compared to our average January rainfall. Despite the low totals, rain at the beginning of the month thwarted our chances of a record-low water month.

To continue the pattern shift that will pervade next week, a cold front will move through the area in the next few hours. This front will continue to bring periods of heavy rain and gusty winds for your Friday night.

A Puget Sound Convergence Zone will develop tonight in Snohomish County, bringing heavy rain and potentially a rain/snow mix in higher elevations as the temperature drops.

Now I am sure you have been seeing the snowflake icon popping up on your weather apps for a few days. The forecast has been up in the air this week as weather models tried to get a handle on the atmospheric setup. We have a bit more clarity now on the weekend forecast, but even that has its share of uncertainty.

First off, the mountains are getting lots of snow as we are writing this blog. By the time the storm is over, several feet of fresh snow will have fallen. This is great news for skiers and our snowpack. A Winter Storm Warning will continue for the passes through 4pm Saturday so make sure to check WSDOT for conditions if you are planning to travel, as conditions over the passes could be treacherous. 

Here in the Seattle area lowlands, we will not be seeing widespread snow this weekend. Temperatures will get above freezing during the daytime on Saturday and Sunday, but during the overnight hours, snow could mix down to the surface. Precipitation will be showery in nature as a low-pressure system spins off our coast. Right now, the best opportunity to see some snowfall appears to be Saturday night into Sunday morning, and then again Sunday night into Monday morning as showers move through the area with temperatures near freezing. Temperatures will cool to near freezing in the overnight overs on most of the upcoming days, while showery conditions persist meaning that definitive snow forecasts will be difficult to ascertain. 

The University of Washington being very close to sea level and between Puget Sound and Lake Washington means that precipitation will need to be fairly heavy to bring down the snow level. Sometimes even a quick drive up to the Maple Leaf area can make the difference between cold rain and wet snow. Areas to the east of Seattle and with higher elevation have a better chance of getting slushy overnight accumulations. The convective nature of the showers also means that a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. 

Heading into the daytime Sunday, showers will continue to be around but daytime warming will raise snow levels above 500 feet. Late Sunday night, cold arctic air will begin to move into western Washington through the Fraser River Valley. By Monday morning, we will once again be sitting in the upper 20s and low 30s. This north wind will eventually dry out the air and also drop temperatures. Wind direction is a very important factor in predicting snowfall because mixing the moisture and cold air is a delicate balance in our marine climate. We will know more details on whether or not we could have additional snow chances next week. However, conditions for morning snow are present as we look ahead to the first half of next week and these setups can have some surprises.

We hope you enjoyed the sunshine Huskies! And just like us have your fingers crossed for some weekend snow. Be sure to keep your jackets and scarves by the door, cause you never know when some stray flakes could start falling!

Reach forecasters Jake Stevenson and Joseph Renalds at theuwdawgcast@uw.edu, on X/Twitter @TheUWDawgcast, or on Instagram @uwdawgcast.