April 5, 2017

TNCs and transit: frenemies? Redux.

After running for six years in New York, Uber was suspected of “stealing” transit ridership and adding more to the traffic gridlock. According to statistics from the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, the annual subway ridership fell slightly in 2016 after many years of consistent growth. One noteworthy detail, however, is that the weekday ridership was at its highest level since 1948 even though the weekend ridership fell by about 3 percent. This analysis of New York City raised worries about the future position of transportation network companies (TNCs) in the media and has caused a lot of discussions on the internet. This makes the future a little less promising for Uber, who is facing a number of other situations at the moment.

So the first question, are TNCs really taking market share from transit? My answer is that for the moment at least, there is not enough evidence to show that they are.

First, the simple analysis provided by the New York Times article does not prove a causal relationship between the TNC and the transit ridership. Even though the ridership fell slightly when TNC trips increased significantly at the same time, there could be other reasons causing this, such as falling gasoline prices and the rising bike share program (Citi Bike, which set a ridership record in 2016 with nearly 14 million trips- an increase of about 4 million trips compared with 2015).

Secondly, data shows an increase of subway ridership on weekdays but a decrease on weekends. This could be due to the frequent transit service interruptions because of the weekend maintenance work. The subway delays have more than doubled since 2012, which certainly does not help to attract and retain riders.

Thirdly, based on a survey among the TNC users in Austin, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle and Washington DC, a study conducted by the Shared-Use Mobility Center (SUMC) for the American Public Transportation Association (APTA)  concluded that the TNC services substitute more automobile trips than public transit trips and they are most frequently used for social trips instead of commuting. This is shown in the following graphs.

 

 

The second question is: with the sustainability of the transportation system being a goal, is it necessarily a negative thing if TNCs are taking market share from transit?  My opinion is that there is no strict answer here either: it depends on when & where the shift happens.  If TNCs are rising from where there is a shortage of transit service (such as weekend and midnight when transit service is infrequent, which seems to be the case for New York), they are playing a role of complementing transit and can potentially help to control/reduce car dependency. The success and sustainability of transit relies on high density and demand, which cannot be attained in a lot of cases (such as weekends and in suburban areas). When the demand is not enough, transit can stop making sense both financially and environmentally, while TNCs can be the lower-cost solution. If TNCs are replacing transit during high-demand times and areas (such as weekday rush hours), we need to start worry because they could potentially introduce more VMT and emissions.

To sum it up, more research needs to be done to find out the relationship between TNC and transit ridership and how the proliferation of shared-use mobility influences vehicle ownership and usage before jumping to the conclusions prematurely.